Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Can Tony Pena Jr Do It?

With just a couple weeks left in the regular season we can focus on all the races for titles: BA, HR, RBI, ERA, W, or whatever stat you prefer.

But under the radar is a man who is close to accomplishing something that is about as rare as it gets:

Tony Pena Jr has a OPS+ of 1 this year in 223 PA. That's right, 1. Brought to you by a .181 OBP and a .206 SLG.

If Pena can do just a little worse than that .181/.206, he can put his OPS under 0, which is quite rare for this many PA. How rare?

This rare:

First Last PA OPS+ Year

Bill Bergen 250 -4 1911

Frank O'Rourke 216 -11 1912

Pat Rockett 157 -0 1978

Bill Dinneen 155 -5 1902

Togie Pittinger 153 -7 1902

Andy Anderson 152 -2 1949


Since 1901, just 6 players with PA>150 and negative OPS+. Rockett, I believe, is somewhere between 0 and -.5.

In KC's last 12 games, Pena has been 1/12 with 0 BB and a SF for a .160 OPS. If he can replicate that 1-12 over the last 12 games, he can put his OPS+ at -1.5. The minimum he can do to get negative is go 0-4, which would get him to -.333. In order to tie the PA record, he needs 27 PA. If he can hit go 4-27 with 4 singles and no walks in that span, he can get to -1 and tie at 250 PA. Chances are that KC won't give him that opportunity, but it'll be interesting to (not) watch.