How does Hernandez do what he does? Let's take a look at some pitchfx data from his 2008 season.
Stuff
Velocity
| Pitch | Hernandez | Average |
| Fastball | 96.89 | 91 |
| Curveball | 83.15 (13) | 77 (14) |
| Slider | 89.53 (7) | 84 (7) |
| Changeup | 86.86 (10) | 82 (9) |
The numbers in parenthesis are the difference between that pitch and the fastball. Hernandez clearly has elite velocity, and keeps that velocity up with all 4 of his pitches.
Movement
Felix
League Average
| Pitch | Horiz Move | Vert Move | Move Angle | |||
| Fastball | -6.07 | -6.2 | 6.68 | 8.9 | -112.7 | -60.8 |
| Curveball | 5.7 | 5.2 | -5.47 | -3.3 | -81.8 | -42.2 |
| Slider | 1.8 | 0.7 | -0.38 | 3.7 | -12.3 | -88.7 |
| Changeup | -6.05 | -7.4 | 3.41 | 6 | -36.2 | -60.3 |
The graph is from the point of view of the hitter, so negative horizontal break is toward a right handed hitter. The vertical movement is compared to a theoretical pitch without spin, so positive numbers aren't pitches that literally rise, just pitches that don't drop as much.
First of all, Hernandez get significantly above average movement both horizontally and vertically, but especially vertically. Notice the 4+ inches of vertical drop between Hernandez and the average slider. That's a huge difference, making his slider almost as close to a curveball as it is to a slider in terms of movement. Of course, if you go back to the velocity table, his slider is closer to being a fastball in terms of velocity. This is quite a pitch. Compared to the average fastball, Felix's fastball breaks in to righties significantly more than his other pitches. The movement difference between his fastball and changeup is nearly entirely vertical, which is quite different than the league average. In fact, the average fastball and changeup have nearly the same angle of break. Felix's curveball is about what would be expected looking at his other pitches.
Results
FB- Fastball; SL- Slider; CB: Curveball; CU: Changeup
| Pitch | Ball% | Called K% | Foul% | Swinging K% | InPlay% | |||||
| FB | 0.36 | 0.34 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.20 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| SL | 0.36 | 0.37 | 0.14 | 0.19 | 0.17 | 0.12 | 0.13 | 0.21 | 0.20 | 0.11 |
| CB | 0.40 | 0.36 | 0.19 | 0.22 | 0.13 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.13 | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| CU | 0.40 | 0.36 | 0.11 | 0.18 | 0.14 | 0.15 | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| All | 0.37 | 0.35 | 0.17 | 0.19 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 0.19 | 0.19 |
The only pitch that is called a ball more than average, his slider, is either a called strike or swinging strike an extra 13% of the time. Hitters really can't put this pitch into play. Beyond that, Hernandez is simply a bit better, but better across the board for significant value.
Now lets look at what happens when the ball is hit into play (AVG and SLG include HR)
| Pitch | AVG | BABIP | SLG | HR% | ||||
| FB | 0.330 | 0.381 | 0.304 | 0.372 | 0.521 | 0.504 | 0.037 | 0.015 |
| CB | 0.310 | 0.486 | 0.290 | 0.441 | 0.471 | 0.811 | 0.029 | 0.081 |
| SL | 0.310 | 0.314 | 0.286 | 0.255 | 0.481 | 0.667 | 0.033 | 0.078 |
| CU | 0.319 | 0.162 | 0.295 | 0.139 | 0.502 | 0.270 | 0.035 | 0.027 |
| All | 0.323 | 0.362 | 0.298 | 0.342 | 0.506 | 0.532 | 0.035 | 0.030 |
Besides his dominating changeup, Hernandez's pitches don't fare too well when put into play. This may be just a product of the pitches that were recorded by pitchfx; his actuall BABIP is .311, compared to the .342 listed in "All" on this chart. He has, however, prevented giving up homers with his fastball, which must be due to the above average sink he puts on it.
| PitchType | nipRuns | nipR100 | bipRuns | bipR100 | TOTAL | runs100 |
| FB | -12.35 | -1.35 | 17.46 | 6.47 | 3.76 | 0.32 |
| CB | -5.14 | -2.04 | 7.53 | 20.35 | 0.35 | 0.12 |
| SL | -9.10 | -2.23 | 4.36 | 8.55 | -6.97 | -1.52 |
| CU | -2.60 | -1.62 | -3.66 | -9.89 | -7.88 | -3.98 |
| All | -29.18 | -1.68 | 25.69 | 6.50 | -10.73 | -0.50 |
This table requires some explanation. First of all, "nip" is not in play, and "bip" is ball in play (include HR). Second of all, all the "Run" values are based on linear weights. The linear weights for balls and strikes come from here. I used a constant based on the average number of times reaching each count. R100 is runs per 100 pitches, which also comes from here
Now onto the actual results. These numbers give a total picture of Hernandez's results using each pitch. Hernandez dominates when he keeps the ball out of play. All of his pitchers are over -1 run per 100 pitches when not put in play, quite an impressive accomplishment. The bipR100 vary greatly, and some of that is probably due to the luck involved on balls in play. His slider is probably his best pitch, but the value of his changeup is clearly not all luck. That extra sink on his changeup seems to be helping Felix avoid hits, especially of the extra base variety.
Summary
Not surprisingly, Hernandez has 4 above average pitches in terms of movement, velocity, and results. His slider is unique, and has results to match its speed and movement. His impressive fastball is a great pitch, but its his offspeed stuff that really sets him apart. Amazingly just 22 years old, Hernandez is probably the best pitcher in the game if you consider age, experience, talent, and results.
All pitchfx stats come from Josh Kalk's
http://www.baseball.bornbybits.com
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